View source for Koketšego ya Palo ya Batho


[[Seswantšho:Absolute_increase_in_global_population_per_year,_OWID.svg|thumb|Koketšego e feletšego ya palo ya batho lefaseng ka bophara ka ngwaga<ref>{{Cite web |title=Absolute increase in global population per year |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-population |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210228152809/https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-population |archive-date=28 February 2021 |access-date=15 February 2020 |website=Our World in Data}}</ref>]]
Kgolo ya baagi ke koketšego ya palo ya batho sehlopheng sa badudi goba se se phatlaletšego. Kgolo ya nnete ya palo ya batho ya lefase ka bophara e fihla go go dikologa dimilione tše 83 ka ngwaga, goba 1.1% ka ngwaga. Palo ya baagi ya lefase ka bophara e gotše go tloga go 1 pilione ka 1800 go ya go 7,9 pilione ka 2020. UN e akantše gore palo ya baagi e tla tšwela pele e gola, gomme dikakanyetšo di beile palomoka ya baagi go 8.6 pilione bogareng bja 2030, 9.8 pilione bogareng bja 2050 le 11,2 pilione ka 2100 Lega go le bjalo, barutegi ba bangwe ka ntle ga UN ba hlamile ka mo go oketšegago dika tša palo ya batho tšeo di ikarabelago ka dikgateletšo tše oketšegilego tša go theoga kgolong ya baagi; boemong bjo bjalo palo ya batho e be e tla fihla tlhoreng pele ga 2100.

Palo ya batho lefaseng e be e dutše e gola ga e sa le go tloga mafelelong a Lehu le Letšo, go dikologa ngwaga wa 1350. Motswako wa tšwelopele ya thekinolotši yeo e ilego ya kaonefatša tšweletšo ya temo le tlhwekišo le tšwelopele ya tša kalafo yeo e ilego ya fokotša mahu e okeditše kgolo ya baagi. Mafelong a mangwe a thutafase, se se diegile ka tshepedišo yeo e bitšwago phetogo ya palo ya batho, moo ditšhaba tše dintši tšeo di nago le maemo a godimo a bophelo di bonego go fokotšega mo gogolo ga kgolo ya baagi. Se se fapana thwii le maemo ao a sa hlabologago kudu, moo kgolo ya baagi e sa diregago. Lefaseng ka bophara, seelo sa kgolo ya baagi se theogile go tšwa go tlhora ya 2.2% ka ngwaga ka 1963. Palo ya batho ya lefase ka bophara e akantšwe go fihla tlhoreng bogareng bja ngwagakgolo wa bo-21 gomme ya fokotšega ka 2100.

Kgolo ya baagi go bapa le tšhomišo ye e oketšegilego ke sešupo sa go tshwenyega ka tikologo, go swana le tahlegelo ya mehuta ya diphedi le phetogo ya klaemete, ka lebaka la go šomišwa kudu ga methopo ya tlhago bakeng sa tlhabollo ya batho. Pholisi ya boditšhabatšhaba yeo e lebantšhitšwego go fokotša khuetšo ya kgolo ya palo ya batho e tsepame ka go Dinepo tša Tlhabollo ya go ya go ile tšeo di nyakago go kaonafatša maemo a bophelo lefaseng ka bophara mola di fokotša khuetšo ya setšhaba go tikologo mola di tšwetša pele bophelo bjo bobotse bja batho. 
{| class="wikitable" style="float: right; clear:right; margin-left: 10px"	
|+Palo ya Batho<ref>{{Cite web |title=United Nations - World Population Prospects 2017 |url=https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180322090748/https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ |archive-date=2018-03-22 |access-date=2017-07-07}}</ref>
|+
! style="background-color: #cfb;" |Nywaga e Fetilego<br /><br /><br /><br />
! style="background-color: #cfb;" |Ngwaga
! style="background-color: #cfb;" |Batho ba bantši (dibilione tše dintši)<br /><br /><br /><br />
|-
| align="left" |Se se boletšwego
|1800
| align="right" |1
|-
| align="left" |127
|1927
| align="right" |2
|-
| align="left" |33
|1960
| align="right" |3
|-
| align="left" |14
|1974
| align="right" |4
|-
| align="left" |13
|1987
| align="right" |5
|-
| align="left" |12
|1999
| align="right" |6
|-
| align="left" |12
|2011
| align="right" |7
|-
| align="left" |11
|2022
| align="right" |8
|-
| align="left" |''14''
|''2037''*
| align="right" |9
|-
| align="left" |''18''
|''2055''*
| align="right" |10
|-
| align="left" |''33''
|''2088''*
| align="right" |11
|-
| colspan="3" align="left" |<small>*Dipono tša Palo ya Batho ya Lefase 2017(United Nations Population Division)<br /><br /><br /><br /></small>
|}

== Histori ==
[[Seswantšho:Human_population_since_1800.png|alt=|thumb|317x317px|Palo ya batho ba lefase e akanyetšwa go tloga ka 1800 go ya go 2100, ka palo ya palo ya batho ba ka moso ka morago ga 2020 go ya ka maemo a "go phagama" le "go fase". Tshedimošo go tšwa go dipolelelo pele tša Ditšhaba tše Kopanego ka 2019.]]
Palo ya batho lefaseng e be e dutše e hlatloga ka mo go sa kgaotšego ga e sa le go tloga mafelelong a Lehu le Letšo, mo e ka bago ka ngwaga wa 1350. Palo ya baagi e thomile go gola ka lebelo lefaseng la ka Bodikela nakong ya phetogo ya diintaseteri. Koketšego ye bohlokwa kudu ya palo ya badudi lefaseng e bile go tloga ka bo-1950, kudu ka lebaka la tšwelopele ya kalafo le go oketšega ga tšweletšo ya temo

=== Tshepedišo ya Haber ===
Ka lebaka la khuetšo ya yona ye kgolo bokgoning bja batho bja go bjala dijo, tshepedišo ya Haber, yeo e reeletšwego ka yo mongwe wa bahlami ba yona, rakhemisi wa Jeremane Fritz Haber, e šomile bjalo ka "sethuthupi sa go thuthupa ga baagi", go kgontšha palo ya badudi ya lefase go oketšega go tšwa go 1.6 pilione ka 1900 go fihla go dibilione tše 7,7 ka November 2019.

Tše dingwe tša mabaka a "Go Hlatloga ga Baagi ga Sebjalebjale"[1] di nyakišišitšwe kudu ke rathutamahlale wa maphelo wa Brithania Thomas McKeown (1912-1988). Dikgatišong tša gagwe, McKeown o ile a hlohla dikgopolo tše nne mabapi le kgolo ya baagi: 

# McKeown o boletše gore kgolo ya baagi ba ka Bodikela, kudu-kudu yeo e bego e hlatloga lekgolong la bo-19 la nywaga, ga se ya bakwa kudu ke koketšego ya pelego, eupša kudu-kudu e bakilwe ke go fokotšega ga mahu kudu-kudu a mahu a bjaneng ao a latetšwego ke mahu a masea, . 
# Go fokotšega ga mahu go ka bakwa kudu ke go hlatloga ga maemo a bophelo, moo McKeown a bego a gatelela kudu boemo bjo bo kaonefaditšwego bja phepo, .
# Kgopolo ya gagwe yeo go ngangišanwago ka yona kudu, goba bonyenyane kgopolo ya gagwe yeo go ngangišanwago ka yona kudu, e be e le gore o belaela go šoma gabotse ga magato a maphelo a setšhaba, go akaretša le diphetogo tša bohlweki, go enta le go bewa thoko, .
# Dingangišano tšeo ka dinako tše dingwe di šoro tšeo kgatišo ya gagwe e di hlohleleditšego go dikologa "thesis ya McKeown" di širile ngangišano ya gagwe ye bohlokwa kudu le yeo e sa hlohlwago kudu ya gore magato a kalafo ya go fodiša a kgathile tema ye nnyane go fokotšegeng ga mahu, e sego fela pele ga bogareng bja ngwagakgolo wa bo-20 eupša gape le go fihla nakong ya bo-20 ngwagakgolo.

Le ge e le gore thesese ya McKeown e ile ya ngangišanwa kudu, dinyakišišo tša morago bjale di tiišeditše bohlokwa bja dikgopolo tša gagwe. Mošomo wa gagwe o bohlokwa kudu go nagana ga bjale ka ga kgolo ya baagi, taolo ya pelego, maphelo a setšhaba le tlhokomelo ya kalafo. McKeown o bile le khuetšo ye kgolo go banyakišiši ba bantši ba baagi, go swana le ditsebi tša tša boiphedišo tša maphelo le bafenyi ba sefoka sa Nobel Robert W. Fogel (1993) le Angus Deaton (2015). Ba morago ba be ba tšea McKeown bjalo ka "mothei wa kalafo ya leago".

== dikai sekhahla sa kgolo ==
"Seelo sa kgolo ya baagi" ke seelo seo palo ya batho ka bomong mo setšhabeng e oketšegago ka nako ye e filwego, yeo e bontšhwago bjalo ka karolwana ya palo ya batho ya mathomo. Ka go lebanya, seelo sa kgolo ya baagi se šupa phetogo ya palo ya badudi mo nakong ya nako ya yuniti, gantši e bontšhwa bjalo ka phesente ya palo ya batho ka o tee ka o tee ka setšhabeng mathomong a nako yeo. Se se ka ngwalwa bjalo ka fomula, yeo e šomago ka nako ye nnyane ka mo go lekanego:

: <math>Population\ growth\ rate = \frac{ P(t_2)  -  P(t_1)} {P(t_1)(t_2-t_1)}</math>

Sekgahla sa kgolo ye botse se laetša gore palo ya badudi e a oketšega, mola sekgahla sa kgolo ye mpe se laetša gore palo ya badudi e a fokotšega. Tekanyo ya kgolo ya lefela e bontšha gore go be go e-na le palo e swanago ya batho mathomong le mafelelong a nako yeo—tekanyo ya kgolo e ka ba lefela gaešita le ge go e-na le diphetogo tše dikgolo ditekanyong tša matswalo, ditekanyo tša mahu, ditekanyo tša bofaladi le kabo ya nywaga magareng ga yona makga a mabedi.


[[Seswantšho:Logistic_growth_graph_(population_ecology).JPG|thumb|Kgolo ya thekgo ya baagi]]
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* {{Cite web |title=World Population Prospects |url=https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170711032459/https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.html |archive-date=2017-07-11 |publisher=Website of the [[United Nations Population Division]]}}
* {{Cite web |title=Food Production and Population Growth |url=https://www.ecofuture.org/pop/revs/quinn_pop_video.html |website=Daniel Quinn, Alan D. Thornhill, PhD |publisher=Ecofuture. Population and Sustainability Media, Non-fiction}}
* {{Cite web |title=Probabilistic Population Projections, 2nd Revision |url=http://esa.un.org/unpd/ppp/index.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131004212919/http://esa.un.org/unpd/ppp/index.html |archive-date=2013-10-04 |publisher=Website of the United Nations Population Division}}
* {{Cite web |title=Population Growth and the Food Supply |url=https://populationinstitutecanada.ca/pic-resources/population-growth-and-the-food-supply/ |publisher=Population Institute of Canada}}
* {{Cite web |title=World population growth and trends 1950-2050 |url=http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.php |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100707175239/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.php |archive-date=2010-07-07 |publisher=US Census}}
* {{Cite web |title=World population: focus on youth, Annual World Population Data Sheet |url=http://www.worldpopdata.org/chart |publisher=Population Reference Bureau |access-date=2023-05-05 |archive-date=2019-09-15 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190915034854/http://www.worldpopdata.org/chart |url-status=dead }}
* {{Cite web |title=Feeding the Ten Billion-Plants and Population Growth |url=https://www.cambridge.org/tz/academic/subjects/life-sciences/natural-resource-management-agriculture-horticulture-and/feeding-ten-billion-plants-and-population-growth?format=PB&isbn=9780521646857 |publisher=PGR Newsletter FAO-Bioversity L.T. Evans. 2000. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-64685-5}} Published in Issue No. 125, page 39 to 40 - (5802) characters